SEC West
Continuing our preview with, arguably, the toughest division in football.
Alabama Crimson Tide
2010-11 Record: 10-3, (5-3)
Head Coach: Nick Saban
Its been one giant party down in Tuscaloosa since Nick Saban came to town. The Tide won the National Championship in 2009-10, Saban got himself a statue, and the boys down in 'Bama were eyeing another SEC Title...until they blew a 21-0 first quarter lead and found themselves on the wrong end of a 28-27 loss to eventual National Champs, Auburn. After stomping feel-good team of the year, Michigan State, in their bowl game, the Tide look to rebound in 2011.
The biggest question on last year's team was all the new bodies on defense, but after a surprisingly good showing, this year's concern will be the offense, which must replace three NFL skill players including once in a generation talent, Julio Jones. Sophomore A.J. McCarron is the penciled in starter, but mega talented Phillip Sims is right on his heels. Sims, the most naturally gifted Alabama signal caller ever, is the more versatile of the two, but both will have a task in replacing the highly efficient Greg McElroy. Under his direction, Bama was one of the most deadly offenses in the nation, racking up a staggering 24-0 record since mid 2007 when scoring 30 or more points. Last year's backfield finished 5th in the SEC; a disappointment considering the presence of a Heisman winner/first round pick Mark Ingram, and future first round pick, Trent Richardson, splitting time. All the buzz around Richardson is legitimate. A freakish athlete at 5'11, 244 lbs with lightning speed, he averaged 6.2 YPC while racking up 700 yards, as well as a whopping 26.4 yards per kickoff return. The only knock on Richardson is durability as he's carried the ball more than 15 times only twice in his career. If he doesn't get nicked up, mark him down as Bama's second Heisman winner in three years. Backing up Richardson, sophomore Eddie Lacy enters 2011 with Trent Richardson 2010 buzz surrounding him. Losing Julio Jones is a huge blow, but Seniors Marquis Maze (38 catches, 557 yards, 3 TD's) and Darius Hanks (32 catches, 456 yards, 3 TD's) have the talent to be very dangerous. Keep an eye on Ohio St. transfer Duron Carter, son of future NFL Hall of Fame WR Cris Carter. If he can get his academics in order, he's basically a bigger, slower Jones. The offensive line was average last year finishing 10th in the SEC in sacks allowed, despite being helped out tremendously by the acumen of McElroy, but they should be much better this year. Anchoring the line will be William Vlachos, and sophomore RT D.J. Fluker will be a star. With all the returning experience, this line should finally be one of the best in the country.
The 2010 Tide defense returned only three starters from a unit that finished second overall in 2009 yet still ranked fifth in the country and third in scoring. The defensive line will be nasty sporting two 310 lb plus tackles in Jesse Williams and Josh Chapman. Even though he is better suited for the pro-game than the college game, losing Marcel Dareus will hurt, and although they won't be as good as the National Championship line, they will still be the best in the SEC. The linebackers are led by future first round pick Dont'a Hightower who came back with a vengeance after suffering a knee injury in '09. C.J. Mosley takes over for Hightower's vacated WILL position, and the JACK will be manned by talented star Courtney Upshaw who will likely finish All-America. The range of the unit is second to none, although outside of Upshaw, there is no true pass rusher. All together, this is a top three linebacking unit. If LSU wasn't my pick to have the best secondary in the SEC, Alabama would. The unit finished sixth in passing efficiency, despite losing 3 starters to the NFL the previous year. Senior DeQuan Menzie is a phenomenal athlete at corner, and Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix could easily become the best safety in the nation. The overall talent of this unit is undeniable and staggering. I could envision no fewer than six members of this secondary spending time in the NFL in the coming years. The consistency should shore up and the unit won't give up as many big plays at inopportune moments. With only one true mega-test against LSU in Death Valley, look for the Tide to compete for the SEC title once again.
2011-12 Prediction: 11-1, (7-1)
LSU Tigers
2010-11 Record: 11-2, (6-2)
Head Coach: Les Miles
Things are different down in the Bayou. Les Miles is either a genius or an idiot savant, and I couldn't tell you which if you paid me. After some hair brained calls, close wins, and some rather interesting quotes, the Tigers ended up as one of the best teams in the country, but not quite as good as Auburn. In 2011, they have all the makings for a championship-caliber squad; the question is whether they'll put everything together and overcome a brutal schedule to hoist the SEC banner.
Things are different down in the Bayou. Les Miles is either a genius or an idiot savant, and I couldn't tell you which if you paid me. After some hair brained calls, close wins, and some rather interesting quotes, the Tigers ended up as one of the best teams in the country, but not quite as good as Auburn. In 2011, they have all the makings for a championship-caliber squad; the question is whether they'll put everything together and overcome a brutal schedule to hoist the SEC banner.
The offense is mega-talented but suspect at the quarterback position. Senior Jordan Jefferson had an astonishingly poor 2010 (1,411 yards, 7 TD's, 10 INT's) and many doubted his starting pedigree coming into spring. But by all accounts, he has played lights out; if he falters, however, the calls to start transfer JUCO phenom/ex-Georgia Bulldog, Zach Mettenberger, will echo loudly. The wide receiver corps will once again be stocked with talent, but will have to break out of a troubling trend of severely under-performing. Spearheading the unit will be 6'4, 210 lb Rueben Randle; although he put up average numbers in his first full season as a starter (33 catches, 544 yards, 3 TD's), he was named a second team preseason All-SEC selection. Opposite Randle, freak phenom Russell Shepard looks poised to have a break out season (if he isn't suspended for violating NCAA rules) after learning the position from scratch and being undervalued by previous coordinator Gary Crowton. The key to the Tigers' offense will be Senior TE DeAngelo Peterson; his unique size and speed on a 6'4 245 lb frame will provide Jefferson a valuable safety blanket given the relative youth in the backfield. Speaking of the running backs, what the group lacks in experience, they more than make up for with talent and depth. Stevan Ridley (225 carries, 1,042 yards, 14 TD's) left Death Valley early, but after a breakout Cotton Bowl (10 carries, 102 yards) sophomore Spencer Ware, looks to pick up right were Ridley left off. Pushing Ware for playing time will be redshirt sophomore Michael Ford and speedy redshirt freshman Jakhari Gore. Paving the way for the backs will be undoubtedly the deepest line in the SEC and possibly the country. The Bayou Bengals return a whopping nine out of ten starters almost all of whom are redshirts with playing experience. The only weakness is left tackle where incumbent first time starter Chris Faulk will be pushed mightily by superstar recruit La'el Collins.
In a complete reversal of roles, the offense will be counted on to bail out the defense in 2011. LSU would like to replicate last season's 12th ranked output and has the talent to do so, but a few obstacles remain. The squad must replace an All-American at all three levels as NT Drake Nevis, MLB Kelvin Sheppard, and the best player in college football, Patrick Peterson, are gone. The defensive line has only one returning starter, but will be absolutely loaded with talent, depth, and raw speed. Redshirt sophomore Barkevious Mingo possesses the talent to be All-SEC and true freshman NT Anthony "Freak" Johnson will be menace. Linebacker will be the most fragile layer. The backers are all super fast and will catch anybody sideline-to-sideline, but all that speed comes at a cost. The lack of size, coupled with the lack of experience and depth will make this a textbook example of a feast-or-famine corps. Behind the backers, despite the loss of Peterson, the Tigers have the makings for the best secondary in the SEC. Sophomore sensation Tyrann Mathieu is a shutdown corner and led the SEC in forced fumbles despite playing off the bench. Opposite Mathieu, Junior Morris Claiborne could be your next Thorpe award winner, and given the depth and speed the rest of the secondary can put on the field in a hurry, don't be surprised if the Tigers employ a heavy dose of the 4-2-5. My worry for the Tigers is their unforgiving schedule. The season opener vs Oregon in Death Valley will set the tone for , as LSU also faces a tricky Mississippi State team on the road, in addition to Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas.
2011-12 Prediction: 10-2, (6-2)
Arkansas Razorbacks
2010-11 Record: 10-3, (6-2)
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino
As much as I detest Bobby Petrino, he has turned the Razorback program into a sleeping giant. Despite a fantastic 2010, in which the only three losses were to Alabama, Auburn, and Ohio St., the Hogs are once again flying under the radar in the SEC. Make no mistake, readers. This team is going to make a lot of noise in 2011.
Normally, losing a QB like Ryan Mallet would cripple a program. After all, heaving for 3,669 yards and 32 TD's behind a suspect offensive line is something that most teams would die for any given year. Junior Tyler Wilson doesn't have the size or arm strength of Mallet, but is more mobile and actually a better fit for the system. Expect a drop off, but the rest of the skill players have the talent to make the offense scary good. The strength of this team will be the backfield which is unquestionably the deepest and most talented in the country. Kniles Davis came out of nowhere to put up huge numbers during the second half of the season. Over his final seven games, the 230 lb bruiser ran for more than seven hundred yards, failing to reach the century mark in only one game; a yawner vs Vandy, when he was given most of the night off. He also punched in 12 of his 13 scores over that time span. If he's not on the short list for the Doak Walker this year already, he will be. Juniors Ronnie Wingo Jr. and Dennis Johnson are starters on any other team in the nation and that fearsome depth will come in handy. I thought the Hogs had the best receiving group in the nation last year, and I believe the same this year. Senior Greg Childs (46 catches, 659 yards, 6 TD's) was on his way to a special season until he got injured and missed the final five games. Fellow senior Jarius Wright (42 catches, 788 yards, 5 TD's) can outrun almost any secondary in the country. The sleeper of this group is TE Chris Gragg. After backing up Mackey Award winner D.J. Williams last year, Gragg has all the makings to be the next best TE in the country. The only weakness of this unit is a curious case of the drops. If the receivers wear some stickum last season, they don't lose to Ohio St in their bowl game. The offensive line wasn't great last year, surrendering 28 sacks, and must replace three starters. They won't be lacking size. All the projected starters are around 6'4 and between 305 and 315 lbs and all of them can move...in that special offensive lineman connotation of the word. They won't have to be spectacular and Arkansas has a recent history of getting good production out of young line players but given the amount of talent on their side of the ball, any early struggles will unfairly probably be blamed on them.
Defense had been a sore spot for the Hogs until last year when they escaped their two year stint at the bottom of the SEC rankings. The line should have the best group of pass rushers in the West, headlined by Jake Bequette (32 tackles, 7 sacks). There will also finally be ample size on the inside between 307 lb junior DeQuinta Jones, and 312 lb sophomore Byran Jones. In 2009, Arkansas allowed 153 YPG on the ground and then promptly took a step back in 2010, surrendering 162 YPG and a whopping 21 TD's, including 8 over the final three games. MLB Jerry Franklin (100 tackles, 6.5 sacks) is the star of the defense, and the converted safety should put up an impressive season for the third straight time. My favorite player on the defense, WILL Jerico Nelson (87 tackles, 2.5 sacks), is an undersized linebacker-safety hybrid who plays with a no-quit motor. Much like Kniles Davis, the secondary came out of nowhere in a hurry to be spectacular last season, given that most teams were bombing away to try and keep up with the Razorback offense. Safety Tramain Thomas (83 tackles, 4 INT's, 4 FF's) will be counted on to help shore up the run defense. The rest of the defensive backs all have good size and speed and should control most of the receivers they face. Tackling won't be an issue, but I still expect a few big plays to be surrendered. The schedule is pretty stacked, and won't be helped by back-to-back games at Alabama and against Texas A&M on a neutral field.
2011-12 Prediction: 9-3, (5-3)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
2010-11 Record: 9-4, (4-4)
Head Coach: Dan Mullen
Dan Mullen is slowly turning the Bulldogs into more than just an afterthought. The problem is that the rest of the SEC West doesn't want to help out. The last time MSU played a Bowl game in 1998, the other five West teams ranged from miserable (Auburn) to slightly above average (Arkansas). Since then, those same 5 teams, with the exception of Ole Miss, have consistently improved to the upper echelon of the nation. The Bulldogs potent spread attack will keep them in almost every game, and the defense will hold its own, but whether that's enough to win the division title remains to be seen.
The offense has improved considerably over the last three years, landing in the top 50 in both total offense and scoring in 2010. Quarterback Chris Relf is on the cusp of a monster season after rounding into his own last year (1,789 yards, 13 TD's, 6 INT's / 713 yards, 5 TD's rushing) and the 6'4, 240 lb senior should blossom into a poor man's Cam Newton. Keep an eye on sophomore Tyler Russell, who is the best pro-style passer the Dogs have possessed in a very, very long time. Either one will have to produce much more against better opponents if the Bulldogs want a shot at the title. The ground game was the catalyst for Mullen's spread, ranking number two in the SEC and 16th overall thanks to Relf and RB Vick Ballard's 968 yards and 19 scores. With Relf looking to be more of a passer, look for the senior and sophomore LaDarius Perkins to be lethal once again. The receivers will be solid, but unspectacular since they don't play in a pass-friendly system. Junior Chad Bumphis (44 catches, 634 yards, 5 TD's) can fly, as his 14.4 YPC shows. On the flip side, a broken clavicle kept him out of the Gator Bowl and he moderately to severely injured his ankle in the spring. Keeping him in one piece is key. Much like Auburn, Mississippi State's biggest strength will be experience within the system; juniors Arceto Clark, Brandon Heavens, and Chris Smith all have great size and know what they're doing. The offensive line will be an experienced group. Senior RT Addison Smith and junior RG Tobias Smith will be bulldozers for the ground game and sophomore Gabe Jackson is an emerging start at LG. LT is the main question after the departure of first round pick, Derek Sherrod.
Despite the lack of a pass rush and a secondary that routinely gave up more than 200 yards a game, the Bulldogs still managed to finish 21st in the nation in scoring defense and was phenomenal against the run. Junior DT's Fletcher Cox (29 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Josh Boyd (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks) will be counted on to free up the ends to produce more pressure. 6'5, 245 lb junior Trevor Stigers could be the answer MSU has been searching for. The rangy end did not register a sack last year, but showed marked improvement over the last half of the season as he grew into the position. Things will have to improve to take pressure off the back seven, which accounted for greater than half the team's total sacks last year. The linebacking unit lit up every opponent last year, but loses all three linebackers coming into 2011. Senior Brandon Wilson is a tough, physical force who won't make a lot of mistakes, but keep an eye on Brandon Maye, a three year starter at Clemson who transferred after losing playing time due to a lack of production. That could be a great motivating chip for someone who produced 103 tackles in 2009. The Bulldogs have lots of options at all the linebacking positions, even if it's not a super talented group. The problem with having a phenomenal run defense like MSU had in 2010 is that teams were content to air it out and put a lot of pressure on the secondary. That resulted in the defense allowing 200 plus yards through the air over their last ten games in a row. All four starters return, but without a little help from the front seven, they'll be in trouble again. Senior SS Charles Mitchell had 93 tackles last season while junior Corey Broomfield (52 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT's) will definitely hold his own against most SEC receivers. Talent and experience abound in the back four, but even if the unit plays close to perfect, without help, it'll more of the same for the defense.
2011-12 Prediction: 8-4, (4-4)
Auburn Tigers
2010-11 Record: 14-0, (8-0)Head Coach: Gene Chizik
14-0. SEC Title. The best singular season by a quarterback in college football history. National Championship. If anybody reading this tells me they envisioned any of the previous phrases being associated with the Tigers at the beginning or even halfway through the 2010 season, I'd call them a big fat liar. The question for strong chinned Gene Chizik and the Tigers is, what now?
After losing a glut of talent on both sides of the ball, the Tigers might be the only defending champion ever who can honestly play with the 'nobody believes in us...again' chip on their shoulders. Guz Malzahn is still there and there's a lot of talent on the shelves. But you only get a player like Cam Newton once in a lifetime, and Cinderellas don't last long in the SEC. Tasked with the impossible is junior, Barrett Trotter, who has the tools to be decent. He's more adept at the timing routes that Malzahn prefers, but what remains to be seen is whether the expectations cripple him more than opposing defenses. Don't overlook true freshman QB Kiehl Frazier who will definitely get playing time. The strength of the unit will be the returning running back duo of Mike Dyer and Onterio McCalebb. Dyer (150 carries, 950 yards, 5 TD's) should see much more of the load now that Newton is gone, and actually had a better YPC than Cam (by 3.6 inches per carry, but still). At 5'9, 206 lbs, the true sophomore is thick enough to handle the beating that comes with the responsibility, but quick enough to make defenses pay for over pursuit. Behind him, junior McCalebb, should once again be the best home run threat in the conference after rushing for 810 yards and 9 TD's on a paltry 95 carries (8.5 YPC). After putting up a convincingly underwhelming 2010 campaign, the receiving corps looks to be in big trouble after losing five starters, including underclassmen Antonio Goodwin and Shaun Kitchens who were dismissed from the team after being arrested on armed robbery charges. Newton is no longer there to bail them out so redshirt freshman Travon Reed will need to immediately contribute across from junior Emory Blake (32 catches, 526 yards, 8 TD's). TE Philip Litzenkirchen may be the most athletically gifted TE in the country and now is the time to prove it. Working in the corps' favor is their experience within Malzahn's intricate system, but the lack of depth will be troublesome and could be costly should the injury bug strike. The offensive line is in total rebuilding mode, with four new starters, and if the Tigers can gel, they have the talent to be a very good unit.
The Tigers defense was a tale of two units, playing the run with an unbridled ferocity, and rarely defending the pass. Losing eight starters including all-world Nick Fairley puts a lot of pressure on the highly talented recruiting class. Sophomore DE Nosa Equae is the likely star after a decent 2010 (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks), but there is a severe lack of experience behind him. What they lack in seasoning, however, they will likely make up for with talent. Linebacker is another thin group as the group that kept Oregon's potent ground game in check is largely gone. Senior Eltoro Freeman needs to shed his inconsistency and take his game to the next level if he is to hold juniors Daren Bates, Jonathan Evans, and sophomore Jake Holland together. Speed is the strength of this unit, but youth will lead to costly mistakes. The secondary must also completely overhaul but this might actually be beneficial. Last year's group was dead last in the SEC and 108th in yards allowed. Senior Neko Thorpe is shifting from corner to safety and is the only returning starter. Junior T'Sharvan Bell is the best athlete on the team, and as a full time starter, will put up better numbers than the 38 tackles and 1 INT he produced as a nickel-back last season. While the secondary is more talented than last year, it likely won't have the saving grace of being as opportunistic thanks to a lack of experience. Youth, inexperience, and a tough schedule ensure the Tigers won't be hoisting the crystal ball again this year.
2011-12 Prediction: 6-6, (3-5)
Ole Miss Rebels
2010-11 Record: 4-8, (1-7)
Head Coach: Houston Nutt
Since the departure of Eli Manning, things have not gone according to plan down in Oxford. The Rebs have gone 5-22 against Auburn, LSU, and Alabama since 2001, 1-3 against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl over the last three years, and 2-8 overall in the division the past two seasons. If Houston Nutt wants to keep his keyster off the hot seat, the Rebs must win against the big boys in the West, and start doing so fast.
One man's trash is another man's treasure or so the saying goes. The same seems true for the Ole Miss Quarterback situation the past few years. From Jevan Snead to Jeremiah Masoli, the Rebs have relied on castoffs from other programs, and this year may be more of the same. Randall Mackey is a mobile, accurate tosser but lacks size at only 6'0, 190 lbs. Sophomore transfer from WVU Barry Brunetti is only slightly bigger at 213 lbs, but has a live arm and tremendous upside to compete alongside Zach Stoudt, the biggest of the three at 6'4, 222 lbs. All three have a lot of talent and upside; the coaching staff has to pleased with the options available to them, but needs to figure out who gives them the best chance to win. Helping out will be senior RB Brandon Bolden, the team's leading returning passer. He was the offense last year, tallying 976 yards and 14 scores on the ground, to complement 32 catches for 344 yards and 3 TD's which makes him the leading returning rusher and receiver as well. He was a tad inconsistent, but the 211 lb speedster can easily put together a Doak Walker trophy candidate with some help from the QB's this year. Keep an eye on sophomore Jeff Scott, who finished a strong freshman year with 429 yards and 3 scores including a 134 yard effort against Auburn. The receivers are very fast, but inexperienced and have to gel together quickly to try and prevent teams from stacking the box to stop the run. Junior Melvin Harris (30 passes, 408 yards, 3 TD's) needs to have more than just another steady season; at 6'6, 210 lbs, he's a matchup nightmare. Redshirt freshman Vincent Sanders has the talent to be a major instant contributor and Oregon State transfer, TE Jamal Mosley is a precise route runner with exceptional hands who could be deadly in the red-zone. As a whole the unit is blessed with tremendous speed from top to bottom, but they have to produce more big plays. The offensive line is going to be absolutely special again after allowing a paltry 14 sacks last year. When the smallest member of your line is 6'3, 312 lbs, you know you're going to push people around. At LT, 6'7, 315 lb senior Bradley Sowell is the anchor. He's a terrific pass blocker and is athletic enough to help pave huge holes on the ground. Next to him is the absolutely massive senior LG Alex Washington. At 6'4, 356 lbs, he struggles a bit in pass protection, but is great in a phonebooth. The only knock on this group is if their size will cause problems for a typical drop back QB. Given its history, however, this may very well be the second best group of hogs behind Kentucky's.
The 2010 season opening loss to Jacksonville State rightfully raised some red flags early, and the defense didn't fail to disappoint, putting together a decisively mediocre season. The line was the lone bright spot, finishing 20th in the country in sacks and tackles for loss but the rest of the defense didn't have much by way of takeaways or stopping big plays. A lot will be riding on senior DE Kentrell Lockett who is coming off a torn ACL which submarined his 2010 season. If he's healthy, he's one of the better pass rushers in the SEC, but that's asking a lot less than year after his injury. Juniors Gerald Rivers (14 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Jason Jones (17 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries) are primed to have great seasons and need to make good on their talent. The linebackers were awful at getting into the backfield last season but solid pass rushers and this year might be the more of the same. Junior D.T. Shackelford was looking for a breakout season before hurting his knee in spring ball. In his absence, sophomore Mike Marry will be counted on the fill the void. With superb range and a solid frame at 6'2, 248 lbs, he will shine as a MLB. The rest of the linebackers all have decent to above average pass-rushing skills but give up the ability to stop the run and that will pose problems in a running back oriented conference. The secondary was an absolute train-wreck, giving up 24 TD's and surrendering 250 or more passing yards seven times. Senior CB Marcus Temple is a solid tackler, but had zero INT's last year. Sophomore Charles Sawyer starts opposite him, and should blossom into the best defensive back on the team now that he will play every defensive down. The safeties are experienced, but as a whole, the backs must provide more than six INT's in order to help the defense get off the field. All in all, this looks like another long year for the Rebels and Nutt could find himself looking for a new job at the end of the season.
2011-12 Prediction: 4-8, (1-7)
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