Monday, June 27, 2011

Around the Nation, Part 2: The PAC-12

PAC-12


The newly realigned PAC-12 will be looking for another banner year by its teams. The biggest question facing the conference is how the additions of new comers Utah and Colorado will affect recruiting, exposure, and perception. Here's a look at what we can expect from these teams, in no particular order.

Oregon Ducks
2010-11 Record: 12-1, (9-0); Defeated in National Championship game by Auburn
Head Coach: Chip Kelly

Ducks fly together. Unless you happen to be CB Cliff Harris who was pulled over after clocking 118 mph in a rental car, on a suspended license. Harris, who had a stellar 2010 on defense (6 INT's, 1 TD) and special teams (school record 4 punt return TD's) is now indefinitely suspended from the team, and the NCAA is looking into any nefarious angles associated with the situation.

On the field, however, the Ducks look as fierce as ever, at least on offense. Heisman finalist LaMichael James (294 carries, 1,731 yards, 21 TD's) and star QB Darron Thomas (2,881 yards, 30 TD's, 9 INT's) return to fuel the 'blur' as do offensive lineman Darrion Weems, Mark Asper, and Carson York. Their 56 combined starts ranks in the lower fourth in the nation, but Steve Greatwood is one of the best positional coaches in the country and will put a powerful line together. The wideout group will sorely miss Jeff Maehl (77 catches, 1,076 yards, 12 TD's), but Josh Huff, who racked up 1,086 all purpose yards in 2010, is the leading candidate to fill Maehl's shoes. Senior Lavasier Tuinei looks to continue his pace from an injury shortened 2010 and will be counted on for leadership. In order for Oregon to make a repeat appearance, their defense will have to overcome some major holes. The Ducks need to replace four members of last year's outstanding front seven and, with the suspension of Harris, both CB's. They won't have much time to mature, as Oregon's first game is a prime-time matchup vs retooled LSU. A defeat would surely submarine the Ducks' campaign before it got started.

2011-12 Prediction: 11-1, (9-0)

Stanford Cardinal
2010-11 Record: 12-1, (8-1)
Head Coach: David Shaw

The Cardinal completed a storybook season in 2010 thanks to Superman QB Andrew Luck, a vicious defense, and the direction provided by tough-nosed Jim Harbaugh. The 2011 version of the Cardinal has a few holes to fill if another run at defending PAC-12 champs Oregon is in store. The return of Luck (3,338 yards, 32 TD's, 8 INT's) automatically makes them contenders on paper. Helping him will be junior RB Stepfan Taylor (223 carries, 1,137 yards, 15 TD's) who could be a sleeper Heisman contender with Luck. Outside of those two playmakers, however, the Card(s?) have some nagging issues.

Gone is do-everything FB/LB Owen Marecic as well as Luck's two favorite targets in Doug Baldwin (58 catches, 857 yards, 9 TD's) and Ryan Whalen (41 catches, 439 yards, 2 TD's). Luck's new targets will include senior Chris Owusu and junior Jamal Rashad-Patterson, who combined for 645 yards and 2 TD's. Both have good size and speed, coupled with experience. Luck's main target will most likely be senior TE Coby Fleener who emerged as one of the best pass catching TE's in the country last year (28 catches, 434 yards, 7 TD's). The biggest issue on offense will be the young and inexperienced offensive line. Last year, Luck was sacked a paltry 5 times, but Chase Beeler, Andrew Phillips, and Derek Hall have moved on. Senior Jonathan Martin will be counted on to anchor the line and keep Luck upright. The defense needs major retooling as well; Senior DE Matthew Masifilo is the only returning starter on the line and the team needs to replace a majority of the linebacking corps. Safeties Delano Howell and Michael Thomas will be counted on to backstop an average secondary. The schedule sets up nicely for the Cardinal in a weak conference, as home games vs Oregon and Notre Dame will be the most daunting challenges.

2011-12 Prediction: 10-2, (8-1)

Colorado Buffaloes
2010-11 Record (in Big 12): 5-7, (2-6)
Head Coach: Jon Embree

Why it took the brain trust at Colorado so long to fire Dan Hawkins ranks right up alongside the 1947 Roswell incident and what actually happened to Elvis as one of the greatest mysteries of the last century. The Buffs are looking to start fresh with a brand new coach in a brand new conference.

The success will start with the offensive line, which boasts a PAC-12 tops and 17th best in the country, ninety-seven combined starts. This should greatly help underrated RB Rodney Stewart (290 carries, 1,318 yards, 10 TD's) produce similar numbers and take a vast amount of pressure off unproven senior QB Tyler Hansen (1,102 yards, 6 TD's, 6 INT's in seven starts). Sophomore wideout Paul Richardson leads a solid group of young receivers and looks to build off an impressive freshman season (34 catches, 514 yards, 6 TD's) playing across from now-departed Scotty McKnight. Rounding out the pass catchers will be sneaky good TE Ryan Deehan (25 catches, 249 yards, 1 TD), poised to take a step forward in his second full season. The defense should be strong, switching back to a base 4-3. All of last year's line, which ranked top five in the Big 12 in both run defense and sacks (+13), is back. Joining them is linebacker Jon Major, fully healthy after another knee injury (hopefully). Alongside him will be potential star, Doug Rippy, who could be an All-PAC 12 player provided he performs with some consistency. The weak-link in the group is the secondary, which must replace CB's Jimmy Smith and Jalil Brown. Senior safety Anthony Perkins looks to lead the group once again, after suffering a torn ACL in week 5. The schedule is the largest obstacle facing the Buffs; Ohio St., Stanford, and Utah on the road, in addition to home games vs Oregon and USC could make their transition year quite painful.

2011-12 Prediction: 6-7, (4-6)

Washington State Cougars
2010-11 Record: 2-10, (1-8)
Head Coach: Paul Wulff

Reasons for cheering in Pullman have been few and far between since 2002. The Cougars have been chalked up as an automatic 'W' for most programs in the PAC-12 the past couple of seasons, except for slightly less bad, state-sharing, Washington. A 2-25 conference record over Coach Wulff's three year tenure leaves the Cougs looking way, way up from the bottom.

Any hope starts with QB Jeff Tuel. The third year starter is coming off a quietly solid season (2,780 yards, 18 TD's, 12 INT's) and is primed to continue his ascent, provided his offensive line doesn't get him killed. Tuel has two excellent receivers in senior Jared Karstetter (62 catches, 658 yards, 7 TDs) and sophomore Marquess Wilson (55 catches, 1,006 yards, 6 TD's). In the backfield, junior Logwone Mitz returns as the presumed starter after a so-so 2010, (73 carries, 263 yards, 4 TD's) but watch out for redshirt Rickey Galvin who was breathing down Mitz's neck before breaking his arm in the season opener. The defense ranked 117th nationally, but returns seven starters including junior DE, Travis Young, (50 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble). The secondary returns all four starters, and freshman DT Toni Pole has the makings of a star. The Cougars will need their offensive line to drastically improve. After surrendering 48 sacks last year, the team has to hope the seventy-one combined starts between the starters allows them to control the line of scrimmage more effectively. The Cougs averaged an anemic 2.6 yards per rushing attempt, were a minus twenty-nine in sacks, and were outscored 111-28 in the first quarter. The schedule presents room for immediate improvement, with games vs Idaho State, UNLV, and on the road at SDSU before facing their first PAC-12 foe, Colorado. The season ending Apple Cup presents the best chance for revenge against U-Dub, as Jake Locker's departure leaves the Huskies trending downward.

2011-12 Prediction: 5-7, (2-7)

Utah Utes
2010-11 Record (in Mountain West): 10-3, (7-1)
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham

Rice-Eccles Stadium was rocking in its final Mountain West season as the Utes stormed to an 8-0 record and were on the verge of joining fellow mid-majors TCU and Boise St. as a BCS Buster. Then, the wheels fell off, quite literally, and the Utes staggered to a 2-3 finish while putting up a laughable 13 total points in the three losses.

In a new conference, the Utes will have to navigate a slew of changes and hope for a little luck to immediately contend. Former USC guru, Norm Chow, is the new offensive coordinator and needs a few players to step up. QB Jordan Wynn (2,344 yards, 17 TD's, 10 INT's) is recovering from shoulder surgery, and won't have his top two RB's or top two WR's to work with thanks to graduation. The biggest returning weapon is WR DeVonte Christopher (39 catches, 660 yards, 6 TD's). RB is an unsettled position, with senior Mychal Robinson the only experienced starter. The offensive line's sixty-five combined starts ranks in the bottom half of the nation and the PAC-12, but they should do an adequate job. On defense, the Utes will employ only five returning starters, and none of the returning front seven have registered more than two sacks in a season. Linebacker will be the strong point of the unit, returning starters Chaz Walker (113 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble) and Matt Martinez (91 tackles, 1.5 sacks) but there will be issues for the secondary, ranked 73rd last year, which must replace four starters. In a pass-happy PAC-12, that could spell disaster. On the bright side, Utah plays an unbalanced schedule, avoiding Oregon and Stanford which should ensure a winning season.

2011-12 Prediction: 8-5, (7-2)

USC Trojans
2010-11 Record:  8-5, (5-4)
Head Coach: Lane Kiffin

Year number one of post Reggie Bush-gate had its ups and downs, but was not the type of season Southern Californians have come to expect from the men of Troy. A historically bad defense and the lack of enough depth to allow full contact practices, thanks to lost scholarships, were the harbingers of USC's first five-loss season since 2001.

The task of injecting swagger back into the program rides solely on the shoulders of junior QB Matt Barkley (2,791 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's). With arguably the best arm in college football, and a game IQ beyond his years, he needs to play with more consistency to make the leap. The Trojans were outscored 118-72 in fourth quarters last year. Helping him out will be a bevy of talented RB's. Senior Marc Tyler (171 carries, 913 yards, 9 TD's) returns and redshirt freshman D.J. Morgan may be the most complete back on the roster. On the receiving end of Barkley's passes will be All-American sophomore Robert Woods who became an instant star with a 65 catch, 792 yard, 6 TD season. The 6'1, 185 lb Woods figures on continual development with Barkley at the helm. The one knock on the unit is maturity. Comprised of lethal athletes, the largest question surrounding them will be their ability to respond to the pressure of playing at a consistently high level. On defense, the Trojans have nowhere to go but up after a disastrous first year in Monte Kiffin's complex system, evidenced by their abhorrent statistics; giving up more than 400 yards and 26 points a game can't be repeated, and the secondary's 30 surrendered touchdowns ranked 115th in the nation. That being said, the front four looks primed for a breakout season behind mega talented DE, Nick Perry, as long as they can avoid the injury bug that has plagued them the past two seasons. The linebackers will be led by budding star Devon Kennard, while a healthy Chris Galippo could be the difference maker lacking on last year's unit. The secondary will have to get better and it starts with junior FS T.J. McDonald. With cornerback speed and linebacker pop, he will be the key to the secondary's fortune. CB Nickell Robey had a team high 4 INT's and has the talent to star as the West Coast's Greg Reid. The ultimate fortune of the Trojans will depend on the offensive line. With a mere twenty-seven combined starts, there is only one true star in junior tackle Matt Kalil. Other than Kalil, there will be at least two rookies in the rotation, and depth will become an issue in a hurry should injuries persist. It's tough to figure out the schedule given all the issues, but games against Notre Dame, Stanford, and Oregon will prove to be tough challenges.

2011-12 Prediction: 8-4, (7-2)

Hopefully, the men of Troy give these lovely ladies something to cheer about this season

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