The 2011-12 college football season may be months away, but it's never too early to start throwing out predictions about which teams will be standing and which teams will be taking an early look at the 2012 season.
We'll start our study with the ACC. Teams are listed in reverse predicted finish.
ACC Coastal Division
Duke Blue Devils
2010-11 record: 3-9, (1-7)
Head Coach: David Cutcliffe
Why they can win the ACC: Okay, okay. Maybe Duke isn't the best team to start with. Fielding a competitive football team in Durham has proven to be more difficult than a Duke student deciding which summer financial internship in NYC to choose. Coach Cutcliffe, whose claim to fame was being Peyton Manning's positional coach at Tennessee, will have his work cut out for him this season yet again. There are some bright spots, however. QB Sean Renfree is the entrenched starter, coming off a respectable 2010 campaign (3,131 passing yards, 14 TD's, 17 INT's). His interception total should decrease with the return of all three of his top targets. Standout Conner Vernon should put up monster numbers again (128 catches in two full seasons) and Donovan Varner proved to be a top flight threat (60 catches, 736 yards). Vernon and Varner's 274 combined catches are the top of any active ACC duo, and Vernon was last year's ACC YPG leader. Keep an eye on Brandon Braxton, (14 catches, 180 yards, 12.9 ypc). At 6'1, 200 lbs he's a little undersized, but in a league where solid cornerbacks are few and far between, he has the chance to blossom as a 'Z' receiver.
Why they can't win the ACC: Talent. There simply isn't enough of it to go around . The team is very top heavy at their skill positions. RB Desmond Scott had decent numbers on paper (120 rushes for 530 yards, 3 TD's) but didn't rush for more than 100 yards in a game after steam rolling Wake Forest (11 carries for 122 yards) in week 2 and was held to 42 yards or fewer in nine of his last ten games. Duke has never been renown for an offensive line, a trend which will continue in 2011, and the schedule is a gauntlet. After opening vs Richmond, the Devils will welcome Pac-12 powerhouse Stanford. Weeks 7-10 present only one winnable game (vs Wake Forest) and the last three weeks present a push (at Virginia), a trip to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, before finishing at home vs North Carolina.
2011-12 Prediction: 3-9, (1-7)
Virginia Cavaliers
2010-11 record: 4-8, (1-7)
Head Coach: Mike London
Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina Tar Heels
2010-11 Record: 8-5, (4-4)
Head Coach: Butch Davis
Why they can win the ACC: 2010 was supposed to be the breakout season for the Tar Heel football program. With All-American T.J. Yates headlining the offense and a slew of first and second round picks on defense, the Tar Heels were the trendy pick to not only win the ACC, but also had National Championship buzz. And then Twitter-gate happened. The resulting suspensions and hoopla surrounding the situation sufficiently derailed what was supposed to be UNC's march into stardom. Yates (3,418 yards, 19 TD's, 9 INT's) is now gone and the Heels turn to Byrn Renner as their starting QB. Renner is the highest ranked QB to ever sign with the Tar Heel program, so expectations and pressure will be high. Renner will certainly have some capable help surrounding him. First and foremost, the Heels return arguably the best offensive line in the conference. With 54 starts between Center Cam Holland, Guard Jonathan Cooper, and Tackle James Hurst, the Heels should be able to control the line of scrimmage on a regular basis. Behind Renner, the Heels must replace three tailbacks who accounted for just about ninety-six percent of their ground game. Sixth year senior Ryan Houston is the only experienced holdover, but Giovani Bernard and Hunter Furr should help the depth. On the receiving end of Renner's passes will be a solid WR corps, headed by budding star Dwight Jones. Jones and Yates had great chemistry leading to a breakout 2010 season for Jones (62 catches, 946 yards, 4 TD's) which he looks to continue. Renner's other options include sleeper Erik Highsmith (25 catches, 348 yards, 3 TD's) and burner Jheranie Boyd who had a staggering 22.1 YPC last season.
Why they can't win the ACC: Unfortunately for the Heels, the same dramas that derailed last season now threaten this season. Parking ticket scandals (Former UNC wideout Greg Little racked up an astounding 93 parking tickets, and combined with seven others, the program racked up 13,000 dollars worth of parking fines), and a new Letter of Intent to investigate former associate head coach John Blake for dispensing improper benefits hover over Butch Davis. The defense has to replace a number of talented players. Although DE's Donte Paige-Moss (49 tackles, 7 sacks) and QuInton Coples (59 tackles, 10 sacks) are bookend players, 3 members of the secondary, including both safeties, who were suspended all of last year, have been cleared to play and will be counted on to replace the entire secondary. Coupled with the extra-curricular problems, it remains to be seen whether the Heels can have their defense play above expectations and need Renner to carry the offense.
2011-12 Prediction: 9-3, (5-3)
Virginia Tech Hokies
2010-11 Record: 11-3, (8-0)
Head Coach: Frank Beamer
Why they can win the ACC: Expectations are always high in Blacksburg, and this season proves no different. Last season's early loss to Boise St. proved to hamper the Hokies' National Championship aspirations; this season's schedule does not provide any marquee out of conference matchups. Logan Thomas has drawn rave comparisons this spring as a more polished version of Terrelle Pryor and more of a bulldozer than Cam Newton. He will line up behind a solid offensive line; all four starters played the entire season last year, and the Hokies have considerable depth. Blake DeChristopher headlines this group with 37 career starts. Tech's total receiving corps may be the best in the conference, spearheaded by Jarrett Boykin (53 catches, 847 yards, 6 TD's). Danny Coale (39 catches, 732 yards, 3 TD's), and Dyrell Roberts complete a group that had nearly 2,000 yards and 11 TD's between them. David Wilson returns as the primary running back and has a chance to improve on his respectable 2010 season (113 rushes, 619 yards, 5 TD's). Tech's hallmark under Beamer has always been defense and this season should be no different. Although Bud Foster's defense dropped out of the top 15 (to a shocking 52nd) in 2010, there figures to be a rebound. Although there will be three new starters on the defensive line, the secondary is backstopped by All-American CB Jayron Hosley who led the nation in interceptions per game (9 picks in 13 games) and was fifth in passes defended. The schedule also favors the Hokies with all three major games (Clemson, Miami, and UNC) at home.
Why they can't win the ACC: Not only do the Hokies start a brand new QB, he is tasked with replacing the winningest QB in program history. A lot will be riding on Thomas' shoulders and he will need to rely heavily on his experienced line and run game to minimize his mistakes. Defense will be the key to this Hokies season, however. Bud Foster is as brilliant as they come, but with three brand new starters on the front seven, the learning curve will be steep. James Gayle and J.R. Collins have the potential to be transformative players, but the 68 plays of 20 yards or more allowed by the defense was ranked dead last in the ACC. If the defensive line doesn't mature quickly, the schedule becomes infinitely more tricky.
2011-12 Prediction: 11-1, (7-1)
We'll start our study with the ACC. Teams are listed in reverse predicted finish.
ACC Coastal Division
Duke Blue Devils
2010-11 record: 3-9, (1-7)
Head Coach: David Cutcliffe
Why they can win the ACC: Okay, okay. Maybe Duke isn't the best team to start with. Fielding a competitive football team in Durham has proven to be more difficult than a Duke student deciding which summer financial internship in NYC to choose. Coach Cutcliffe, whose claim to fame was being Peyton Manning's positional coach at Tennessee, will have his work cut out for him this season yet again. There are some bright spots, however. QB Sean Renfree is the entrenched starter, coming off a respectable 2010 campaign (3,131 passing yards, 14 TD's, 17 INT's). His interception total should decrease with the return of all three of his top targets. Standout Conner Vernon should put up monster numbers again (128 catches in two full seasons) and Donovan Varner proved to be a top flight threat (60 catches, 736 yards). Vernon and Varner's 274 combined catches are the top of any active ACC duo, and Vernon was last year's ACC YPG leader. Keep an eye on Brandon Braxton, (14 catches, 180 yards, 12.9 ypc). At 6'1, 200 lbs he's a little undersized, but in a league where solid cornerbacks are few and far between, he has the chance to blossom as a 'Z' receiver.
Why they can't win the ACC: Talent. There simply isn't enough of it to go around . The team is very top heavy at their skill positions. RB Desmond Scott had decent numbers on paper (120 rushes for 530 yards, 3 TD's) but didn't rush for more than 100 yards in a game after steam rolling Wake Forest (11 carries for 122 yards) in week 2 and was held to 42 yards or fewer in nine of his last ten games. Duke has never been renown for an offensive line, a trend which will continue in 2011, and the schedule is a gauntlet. After opening vs Richmond, the Devils will welcome Pac-12 powerhouse Stanford. Weeks 7-10 present only one winnable game (vs Wake Forest) and the last three weeks present a push (at Virginia), a trip to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, before finishing at home vs North Carolina.
2011-12 Prediction: 3-9, (1-7)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2010-11 Record: 6-7, (4-4)
Head Coach: Paul Johnson
Why they can win the ACC: The 2010 season was a veritable disappointment for the Yellow Jackets and the prevailing thought indicates the sense of entitlement tied to being defending ACC Champions prevented the Jackets from playing up to their potential. With the crown and its target gone, as well as an Independence Bowl loss, the Jackets look to threaten once again. Tevin Washington leads the squad, after playing behind the consistent Josh Nesbitt (674 yards, 7 TD's passing; 737 yards, 10 TD's rushing). Fifth year senior Preston Lyons leads a stocked B-back stable, which has the task of trying to replace Anthony Allen's monstrous numbers (240 carries, 1,316 yards, 7 TD's). With the motivation back, the Jackets certainly have the ability to run any team in the country into the ground (323.3 YPG, 1st nationally). The strength of the Jackets is their solid, yet thin defensive line. Jason Peters (38 tackles, 5 sacks), Izaan Cross (31.5 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Logan Walls (12.5 tackles) all return. In their second full season in defensive coordinator Al Groh's system, they should at least have a better idea of what to do scheme-wise, and help ease the transition for all of the Jackets' new linebackers.
Why they can't win the ACC: The Jackets are undoubtedly in serious re-stocking mode in 2011. After losing their top two offensive threats in Nesbitt and Allen, Washington has a lot of pressure on his shoulders. The WR corps is an afterthought in Coach Johnson's wishbone/flexbone-offense. Returning starter Stephen Hill (15 catches, 291 yards, 3 TD's) doesn't figure to have much more work than that, and fellow wideouts Daniel McKayhan, Tyler Melton, and Jeremy Moore round out a pretty forgettable group. The defense must replace three of its top six tacklers, and past the front three, there is a serious lack of experience at the linebacker position, along with the challenge of trying to replace all four starters in the secondary. Although the schedule is not too arduous, I think there is just too much uncertainty to take advantage of it despite a possible 3-0 start.
2011-12 Prediction: 4-8, (1-7)
Virginia Cavaliers
2010-11 record: 4-8, (1-7)
Head Coach: Mike London
Why they can win the ACC: The 2010 Wahoos were a grand example of head scratching inconsistency. The same team that took USC to the wire in Southern California and took out Miami in Charlottesville also lost to perennial cellar-dweller Duke in a defense-optional game. The Cavs return four starting offensive linemen, which should greatly help whomever they choose as their starting QB. For the moment it seems that sophomore Michael Rocco has the inside track for the job. Fellow sophomore Ross Metheney is the only other QB on the roster who has thrown a collegiate pass. The receiving corps will be an issue as Kris Burd (58 catches, 799 yards, 5 TD's) will be the only returning starter of particular note. Tim Smith, whose 2010 season was derailed because of injury, also returns which could provide a small boost. The Cavs will once again be a run first team with two extremely capable halfbacks lining up behind the QB. Although they will sorely miss Keith Payne (160 carries, 749 yards, and a monstrous 14 TD's) scatback Perry Jones (5'8, 185) is looking to have a breakout year after posting impressive numbers behind Payne (137 rushes, 646 yards, 1 TD). Complementing him in the backfield will be Kevin Parks (5'8 195) who is more of an in between the tackles runner and figures to help the ascent of the Cavs' ground game, which under first year coordinator Bill Lazor improved from 112th in the nation to 77th last year. The Cavs will rely heavily on their defense, which has a chance to improve after one full season in Coach London's 4-3 defense. Senior DE Cam Johnson (Gonzaga College High School) will look to build upon a fantastic 2010 (54 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and should be considered one of the better DE's in the conference. CB's Chase Minnifield and Corey Mosely are probably the second best CB duo in the conference, with Minnifield snagging 6 INT's last year, good enough for second in the ACC and seventh nationally, despite being hampered by a nagging ankle injury the last four games of the season.
Why they can't win the ACC: Simply put, they are too young at the most important position on the field. It would be tough to expect Rocco or any other QB on the roster to have a Danny O'Brien type season for the Wahoos and their RB depth is compromised should anything happen to Jones. The lack of a seasoned WR corps will hurt their ability to put points on the board and as good as their defense might be, the team is simply too one dimensional at this point. Although the schedule sets up favorably for them (a 4-1 start isn't out of the question) the backload could easily lead to a 1-4 record in their last five.
2011-12 Prediction: 6-6, (2-6)
Miami Hurricanes
2010-11 Record: 7-6, (5-3)
Head Coach: Al Golden
Why they can win the ACC: The Hurricanes' fortunes are tied directly to one player. Jacory Harris. An up and down 2010 campaign (1,793 yards, 14 TD's, 15 INT's) stymied Miami's aspirations and eventually cost former coach Randy Shannon his job. New head coach Al Golden is tasked with inspiring the enigmatic Harris to take his game to a higher level. Harris will be protected by a monstrous offensive line, with four returning starters including Brandon Washington, arguably the best offensive lineman in the conference. Leonard Hankerson (72 catches, 1,156 yards, 13 TD's) is gone but the wide-receiver corps returns quite a bit of talent, headlined by Travis Benjamin (43 catches, 743 yards, 3 TD's, 17.3 YPC) with LaRon Byrd and Aldarius Johnson battling to establish themselves. Lamar Miller returns as the starter in the backfield and should be able to break the 1,000 yard mark after a brilliant freshman season (108 rushes, 646 yards, 6 TD's). The defense has two bookends in Adewale Ojomo and Olivier Vernon and Jo Jo Nicolas is one of the better CB's in the conference.
Why they can't win the ACC: Jacory Harris. Although he has put up some decent numbers over course of his career, he never quite seems to live up to the pressure and there is no guarantee that he will even be the starter. Stephen Morris is the QB of the future and has an outside shot at unseating Harris. How the team responds to Golden will absolutely dictate the season. Outside of the defensive line, there are major questions, such as who will start opposite Nicolas. The Canes also have a big task in trying to replace Safeties Brandon Harris and Ryan Hill. In their six losses last year, the Canes were a minus 19 in the turnover battle, an astounding 3 per game. That will have to change if the Miami wants to improve.
2011-12 Prediction: 8-4, (5-3)
North Carolina Tar Heels
2010-11 Record: 8-5, (4-4)
Head Coach: Butch Davis
Why they can win the ACC: 2010 was supposed to be the breakout season for the Tar Heel football program. With All-American T.J. Yates headlining the offense and a slew of first and second round picks on defense, the Tar Heels were the trendy pick to not only win the ACC, but also had National Championship buzz. And then Twitter-gate happened. The resulting suspensions and hoopla surrounding the situation sufficiently derailed what was supposed to be UNC's march into stardom. Yates (3,418 yards, 19 TD's, 9 INT's) is now gone and the Heels turn to Byrn Renner as their starting QB. Renner is the highest ranked QB to ever sign with the Tar Heel program, so expectations and pressure will be high. Renner will certainly have some capable help surrounding him. First and foremost, the Heels return arguably the best offensive line in the conference. With 54 starts between Center Cam Holland, Guard Jonathan Cooper, and Tackle James Hurst, the Heels should be able to control the line of scrimmage on a regular basis. Behind Renner, the Heels must replace three tailbacks who accounted for just about ninety-six percent of their ground game. Sixth year senior Ryan Houston is the only experienced holdover, but Giovani Bernard and Hunter Furr should help the depth. On the receiving end of Renner's passes will be a solid WR corps, headed by budding star Dwight Jones. Jones and Yates had great chemistry leading to a breakout 2010 season for Jones (62 catches, 946 yards, 4 TD's) which he looks to continue. Renner's other options include sleeper Erik Highsmith (25 catches, 348 yards, 3 TD's) and burner Jheranie Boyd who had a staggering 22.1 YPC last season.
Why they can't win the ACC: Unfortunately for the Heels, the same dramas that derailed last season now threaten this season. Parking ticket scandals (Former UNC wideout Greg Little racked up an astounding 93 parking tickets, and combined with seven others, the program racked up 13,000 dollars worth of parking fines), and a new Letter of Intent to investigate former associate head coach John Blake for dispensing improper benefits hover over Butch Davis. The defense has to replace a number of talented players. Although DE's Donte Paige-Moss (49 tackles, 7 sacks) and QuInton Coples (59 tackles, 10 sacks) are bookend players, 3 members of the secondary, including both safeties, who were suspended all of last year, have been cleared to play and will be counted on to replace the entire secondary. Coupled with the extra-curricular problems, it remains to be seen whether the Heels can have their defense play above expectations and need Renner to carry the offense.
2011-12 Prediction: 9-3, (5-3)
Virginia Tech Hokies
2010-11 Record: 11-3, (8-0)
Head Coach: Frank Beamer
Why they can win the ACC: Expectations are always high in Blacksburg, and this season proves no different. Last season's early loss to Boise St. proved to hamper the Hokies' National Championship aspirations; this season's schedule does not provide any marquee out of conference matchups. Logan Thomas has drawn rave comparisons this spring as a more polished version of Terrelle Pryor and more of a bulldozer than Cam Newton. He will line up behind a solid offensive line; all four starters played the entire season last year, and the Hokies have considerable depth. Blake DeChristopher headlines this group with 37 career starts. Tech's total receiving corps may be the best in the conference, spearheaded by Jarrett Boykin (53 catches, 847 yards, 6 TD's). Danny Coale (39 catches, 732 yards, 3 TD's), and Dyrell Roberts complete a group that had nearly 2,000 yards and 11 TD's between them. David Wilson returns as the primary running back and has a chance to improve on his respectable 2010 season (113 rushes, 619 yards, 5 TD's). Tech's hallmark under Beamer has always been defense and this season should be no different. Although Bud Foster's defense dropped out of the top 15 (to a shocking 52nd) in 2010, there figures to be a rebound. Although there will be three new starters on the defensive line, the secondary is backstopped by All-American CB Jayron Hosley who led the nation in interceptions per game (9 picks in 13 games) and was fifth in passes defended. The schedule also favors the Hokies with all three major games (Clemson, Miami, and UNC) at home.
Why they can't win the ACC: Not only do the Hokies start a brand new QB, he is tasked with replacing the winningest QB in program history. A lot will be riding on Thomas' shoulders and he will need to rely heavily on his experienced line and run game to minimize his mistakes. Defense will be the key to this Hokies season, however. Bud Foster is as brilliant as they come, but with three brand new starters on the front seven, the learning curve will be steep. James Gayle and J.R. Collins have the potential to be transformative players, but the 68 plays of 20 yards or more allowed by the defense was ranked dead last in the ACC. If the defensive line doesn't mature quickly, the schedule becomes infinitely more tricky.
2011-12 Prediction: 11-1, (7-1)
No comments:
Post a Comment